понедельник, 11 ноября 2013 г.

How staking plans work in betting

Here I'll describe several staking plans to show you how it is possible to manage stakes or recover losses.


Kelly's plan

This plan used Kelly's Criteria to calculate the stake. To use it you should estimate a chance that your selection will win. Let's name this estimation 'p'. Formula to calculate the stake is:
f = ((b – 1) * p – (1 – p)) / (b – 1)
stake = bank * f / divisor
where 'b' is current decimal odds of your selection.
Divisor is used to divide the Kelly's stake to keep it under reasonable size.
Lay version of this staking plan has additional parameter 'As Liability'. If this box is ticked, the bot uses final result of calculations as bet's liability instead of stake.

1-4 plan
Lay 1-4 plan is designed to increase your Stake after a winner and try to recover the running loss after which the bet is reset back to the original size. The bet is increasing up to Max Multiplier number (4 by default).
The coefficient of the increased bet is displayed in Multiplier field. The running loss can be seen in Loss To Recover.
Example:
# Loss Mult. Stake Odds Result P/L
---------------------------------------------
Bet 1 0 1 2 2.94 Lost 1.9
Bet 2 0 1 2 6.98 Won -11.96
Bet 3 11.96 2 4 5.7 Lost 3.8
Bet 4 8.16 2 4 4.62 Lost 3.8
Bet 5 4.36 2 4 2.57 Won -6.28
Bet 6 10.64 3 6 4.58 Lost 5.7
Bet 7 4.94 3 6 7.1 Lost 5.7
Bet 8 0 1 2 5.12 Lost 1.9



Back Bookies Bank

The staking plan is a simple recovery system. In parameters you can set Bookies Bank and Percentage To Bet. Imagine that you are betting against a bookie. Every time you lose, the bookies bank is growing. You always stake a % of current bookies bank. Therefore if bookies bank is £200 and your percentage to bet is 10% your stake will be £20.

In this example, starting bookies bank is 100 and percentage to bet is 10%. First bet is £10 (10% of £100) and it losses. Bookies bank is growing by £10 and now it is £110. The next stake is £11 (10% of £110). This one losses again increasing bookies bank by £11. The next stake is £12.1 (10% of £121). After 3 losing bets the bookies bank is £133.1 and we stake £13.31 in 4th bet that wins £59.93. This amount is deducted from bookies bank. Now bookies bank is less than we started with (£100) and we take 10% of £100 on the next stake.